What Will Be the Highest Grossing Movie in 2026? Traders See a Clear Winner

The highest-grossing movie for 2026, if you ask the predictions market, hasn’t even hit theaters yet.

Throughout the year, the box office will have been packed with new films like Avengers: Doomsday, The Odyssey, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Toy Story 5, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and many more. Which will come out on top as the highest earner?

Avengers: Doomsday, though widely anticipated, might be a tough one to sell as the highest earner of the year, considering it’s not scheduled to hit theaters until mid-December.

Toy Story 5, Deadline reports, is expected to break a franchise record with a $150 million domestic opening when it releases in theaters on June 19. If that projection hits, that will mean that Super Mario Galaxy Movie, the biggest opening of 2026 year-to-date, will be out. Mario earned $131.7 million when it hit theaters on April 1 and to date has made $427.6 million worldwide.

The second-highest grossing film of the year is the Michael Jackson biopic Michael, which to date has raked in $343.7 million.

While it’s too early to give a clear prediction for The Odyssey‘s box office earnings, it’s still expected to be one of the highest-grossing films of the year and will attract a wide audience.

All that being said, the predictions market sees a clear winner. In a Polymarket scenario betting on the highest-grossing movie of 2026, Spider-Man: Brand New Day currently holds a whopping 56% chance.

Though the predictions race between Spider-Man and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie got tight in March, a few weeks before Mario‘s release (Mario had 42% while Spider-Man had 31%), Spider-Man has since widened the gap.

In fact, the next-best bet from Polymarket traders appears to be Avengers: Doomsday, which currently holds an 18% chance of making the most money. Next up is Toy Story 5 at 16%, Mario at 3% and The Odyssey at 3%.

The rest of the listed films — Dune: Part Three, Wicked: For Good, Scream 7, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, Wuthering Heights, Michael, Project Hail Mary, Jumanji 3 and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu — all hold 1% odds or less.

Will the market hold? Will it correctly predict Spider-Man: Brand New Day as the highest grossing film of the year? Only time will tell.

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