Charli XCX Polymarket Odds Have Skyrocketed

The pop music side of prediction market company Polymarket just saw one artist make waves.

Charli XCX’s career is currently the subject of two markets: “Will Charli XCX announce a new album by July 31?” and “Will Charli XCX release a new original album by July 31?.” Both wagers dropped on April 9, and there wasn’t overwhelming positivity on the matter.

“Yes” on announcement market hit a low point (41%) April 13, and “Yes” on the release a market hit a low point (34%) on May 2.

Then Charli shook things up. The musician, whose last non-soundtrack LP was 2024’s Brat, put out a new single, “Rock Music,” on May 7. Odds on both markets jumped up as Charli teased the song and the new baseline solidified. The positivity shift was even more enforced when the Erupcja actress dropped another song, “SS26,” on Thursday (May 21).

The announcement market peaked at 93% on May 12, with it now residing at 80% as of press time. The release market saw some weird fluctuation over Memorial Day weekend — including a brief return to that 34% low — but now sits at a high point (61%).

While it’s still unclear exactly what Charli XCX has planned for her next album, it appears Polymarket bettors don’t think “Rock Music” and “SS26” are one-offs.

(Editor’s Note: Polymarket is defining a new album under these conditions: “Re-recorded albums, deluxe/expanded/reissue editions, live albums, greatest-hits/compilations, remix albums, soundtrack albums, and EPs do not count unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album’s release. Collaborative albums count only if Charli XCX is credited as a primary/co-lead artist for the album; projects where she is only a featured artist do not.”)